One curiosity which has arisen while I’ve been reading notices that country x has expelled n number of Russian diplomats as a consequence of the Skripal poisoning relates directly to the consequences it will have on the Russian ability to gather intelligence. Granted, their recently closed office in Washington State was surely there for no purpose other than to spy on Boeing. And this just as surely feels like the the correct move because it prevents them from further exploiting strategic American assets.

We have to keep in mind, however, that one of the leading causes of armed conflict is a miscalculation of your opponent’s capabilities relative to your own. You might attack because you perceive that you have a strategic advantage and that the costs of engaging in conflict are outweighed by the potential payoff at victory. Or, you might attack because you believe that your opponent is mustering against you in some form or another. This does not require the enemy to be physically marching across your border, of course. There could be a perception that a rival is rallying world forces against you economically and politically and intends to starve you into submission. These observations may be accurate, in which case you are right to act. They may not be, however. In which case, your perception is flawed and your action will be inappropriate and may trigger consequences with which you are inadequately prepared to engage.

One way that a state, whether Russian or any other, guards against strategic misperceptions as described above is through the wholesale gathering of intelligence so that they may have a more accurate representation of relational power. As the ability to gather intelligence weakens, whether through budget cuts as an oil-based economy flounders or through the physical defenestration of diplomatic and intelligence assets from the field, the strategic coordination apparatus will now be increasingly required to rely at least marginally on conjecture, extrapolation, and – should it escalate far enough – ideological superstition.

The potential for misinterpretation of reality and subsequent state behavior is sufficiently worrisome under the best of circumstances. And these are not they. I liken it to playing a game of poker both with cards missing from the deck and knowing that your hand might change the moment you play it. This does not mean that the West has been wrong to punish Russia. They have committed state-sponsored murder on foreign soil. We must, however, concede that their assets will be compromised and that we’ll need a political sheepdog to keep everyone moving in the right direction.